On the hunt for the transition point
- Details
- Published on Tuesday, 07 April 2026 12:52
How many more warning signs do we need before we commit more wholeheartedly to sustainable fuels?
At the start of this century, our fear was peak oil. And rightly so. Historic oil-producing regions such as Montana were heralding the end of operations for many oil derricks. Malthusian thinking was making a major comeback, fuelled by fears of a global population explosion devouring its resources. We were afraid of suffering the fate of Easter Island, or, to be more in keeping with the times, a Mad Max-style fate.
Although the oil industry has since been displaced from the top spots on the stock market by new technologies, it has by no means stood still. By drilling further and deeper, and by tapping into shale gas and oil or oil sands, it has managed to reinvent itself. Without really providing a solution to the problem, we have merely pushed peak oil further into the future. Have we even passed it, for that matter? It is no longer a topic of current interest.
The same applies to the false alarm over runaway population growth. The WHO now anticipates a population peak below the critical sustainability threshold (around 12 billion people), followed by a probable decline – following the pattern seen in Western society.
So, phew, all is well in the best of all possible worlds.
Really?
Recent events have just reminded us that around a fifth of our hydrocarbon supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz – or, more accurately, are no longer passing through at the moment due to the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Earlier, we found ourselves caught up in another geopolitical imbroglio, due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and the financial support for that war via Russian gas. In the specific case of Austria, the abandonment of the Nabucco pipeline project is now being felt keenly. In the 2010s, a connection to Azerbaijani gas was at an advanced stage of planning as part of the Nabucco pipeline. This idea was abandoned in favour of increasing gas orders from Russia in 2017.
In 2020, we endured the ordeal of a society virtually at a standstill due to the terrible Covid pandemic. On a positive note, we came through this ordeal without breaking society. History will tell whether the current crises are, or are not, the aftershocks of that pandemic. Nevertheless, even though we paid a heavy price, humanity has emerged from this rut with its head held high.
So, it doesn’t have to be like Mad Max. But in our everyday lives, we can see just how fragile our energy strategy is. Just how dependent we are on third countries that may be in crisis, or potentially hostile – or both.
Europe has not stood idly by. Spurred on by the European Green Deal, a number of policies to support green energy have been launched. Hydrogen, for example, has received unprecedented support. We would like to take this opportunity to thank FFG Österreichische Forschungsförderungsgesellschaft mbH and Austria Wirtschaftsservice (aws) for funding our research in Austria. As a reminder, the idea is to convert surplus green electricity into a storable form of energy – and hydrogen is one such form. Green hydrogen is produced through the electrolysis of water, which is itself abundant. And the combustion of hydrogen produces water. And so on, in a virtuous energy cycle. Depending on their specific energy mix, virtually every country on the planet has the potential to produce green hydrogen. Some countries even see this as a significant opportunity – take Chile, for example, with its strong potential for wind energy – without necessarily being oil-exporting nations. Hydrogen therefore offers a realistic lever for reshuffling the deck of energy interdependencies.
However, momentum on this issue has been waning in recent years. The United States’ recent return to an interventionist oil policy from a bygone era (‘drill baby drill’) has played a significant part in this. Environmental concerns are much less prominent on the agenda. Technical difficulties and the time needed to resolve them are taking their toll. Impetus for hydrogen and green fuels has lost steam.
In short, at least 80% of primary energy production still depends on the combustion of conventional hydrocarbons. The situation has hardly changed. Our fundamental problems remain the same. Uncertainty persists regarding our ability to sustain our way of life in the long term.
Pump-up research on combustion and next-generation fuels!
Even if the going gets tough, we must not give up. Europe and European countries have everything to gain from developing new fuels. It is a question of energy sovereignty, rational consumption and economic success. New energies can also become a vehicle for peace, regional stabilisation and opportunity for new players.
Combustion Bay One e.U. was founded on the belief that conventional combustion technologies could be improved. Our innovations also enable us to prepare for the future with alternative fuels. We are therefore well placed to ensure the energy transition. We advocate two ideas that are not mutually exclusive. We must support research into combustion and the development of new energy sources. A forced transition, such as the one that took place for the internal combustion engine in Europe, will not happen. That would be suicidal: no one would invest in modernising combustion plants anymore. This can be done gradually, in line with the phased introduction of new fuels. This is exactly what we propose to support, whilst campaigning to accelerate this transition towards sustainable fuels, given their beneficial and desirable effects.
One of our projects involves developing a machine specifically designed for hydrogen. Thanks to its remarkable reactivity, hydrogen opens up a sweet spot where no other fuel can burn. It is in this niche that we intend to make our mark. It may well be with this machine that we succeed in winning you over to hydrogen.
If this topic interests you, we would be delighted to discuss it with you. We would also like to take this opportunity to announce our participation in the upcoming international gas turbine conferences: ASME Turbo Expo 2026 in Milan in June and the ISABE conference in Mumbai in September.
